Today is two days shy of two months since the Watts family murders. HLN has provided consistent coverage of the case until now. But not all the analysis is what it’s cracked up to be.
Take the GPS tracking device stuff. The line of interrogation HLN took is that Anadarko looked at Chris Watts’ GPS tracker [it comes standard in many corporate vehicle fleets] and gave this data to the cops, and that’s how they located the remains.
But for one thing, that’s not how the affidavit reads. According to the affidavit Chris said he loaded all three bodies onto the back seat of his work truck and then took them to CERVI 319, a remote work site where he was stationed as an operator.
In other words, the affidavit notes that once confronted with the surveillance video and the fact it confirmed that Shan’ann and the kids were never seen leaving the residence, the only possible inference was that they had left – alive or dead – with him. [There’s actually more to it than this, which I go into in TWO FACE, and there’s also the possibility that they could have gone out through the back door, but for the sake of argument, let’s accept that the surveillance video alone was sufficient].
The affidavit pertinently notes that Chris said…[to the cops]…he took them to an oil work site.
HLN seems to believe he said this only because he was confronted with GPS tracking data. The cops knew the bodies were somewhere at the work site, they just weren’t sure where.
There have been lingering doubts about where the little girls were disposed, but the affidavit is unambiguous: they were placed in separate locations.
Secondly, there’s a very good reason why the GPS data isn’t crucial evidence. HLN makes out that Chris Watts was driving around unaware that he was being tracked, and this data caught him out. It’s possible of course, but in my view unlikely.
When Scott Peterson returned from his fishing trip [which we now know was actually a body dumping trip], he made several calls to Laci’s phone and to the home phone. The point of these calls wasn’t because Scott Peterson didn’t know where Laci was, or didn’t know that his movements were being tracked, timestamped, logged and the geographical location recorded, but the opposite. It was because he did. He wanted his trip to San Francisco Bay that day to pass the plausible deniability test. In Peterson’s scenario, his deniability lay in the “fact” that he was a hundred miles away from Modesto when Laci was walking her dog and disappeared.
As it turns out, his browser history on his work computer actually proved he was still in Modesto mid-morning. Uh-oh.
I’ve seen a fair amount of comment suggesting Chris Watts had “no plan” after the murders, and others that he may not even have planned any of the murders to begin with. I won’t deal with that here, except to say, just like Scott Peterson, the secret was to disguise the crime in plausible deniability. What does this mean? It means on the morning of Monday August 13th, Chris Watts was supposed to be at CERVI 319 anyway.
In TWO FACE I provided extended timelines, and also showed that Chris Watts often left home before the crack of dawn. A neighbor also said it was unusual that he’d leave as “late” as he did Monday morning. He usually left shortly after 04:00, not 05:00. Shan’ann said as much in several of her social media posts.
Like this one.
And so, the murder and the disposal of the remains was hidden in plausible deniability – hidden in the routine work schedule. Here was Chris getting up early as usual, except it was a little unusual that he was up and out quite a few minutes later that Monday morning of all mornings.
If the murder/s were committed close to 02:00, then what had Chris Watts been doing for the next three hours that delayed him getting through the door on time?
Chris Watts going to work as per his usual routine was meant to be his alibi. Where was he when Shan’ann disappeared? Why, he was at work. He, being the concerned husband he was, also called her from work throughout the morning [reinforcing his alibi].
So the idea that GPS tracking data gave away secret information is, to my mind anyway, a little silly. Chris Watts’ job was to monitor work sites. He knew exactly what was being monitored and where, and it’s likely he knew his vehicle was being monitored too. When the cops were investigating his house as a crime scene with sniffer dogs, he was also painfully aware of scent issues around the remains, which is why he dumped the children in separate oil drums to begin with.
So going to the work site wasn’t any different to where he was going anyway, and that was the point.
The affidavit does note that prior to Chris Watts’ confession, investigators arrived at CERVI 319 with consent to conduct a drone search. Does this mean Chris Watts consented, did Anadarko consent, or did Chris Watts and Anadarko consent?
More likely the latter. If either had objected the cops would have had to get a search warrant. Chris Watts was fine with the cops searching his house; why wouldn’t he play it cool and be fine with them searching the work site too? They’d need specialized tools to find anything inside the tanks anyway.
While the idea is intriguing that Andarko or the fleet controllers gave GPS data to the cops, what’s more likely is the cops simply asked Chris Watts where he went when he left home, and confirmed this information with Anadarko.
Exactly the same spiel played out with Scott Peterson. He was asked where he was that morning, and he told investigators where he was. He even had a ticket stub from the marina to prove where he was. The whole point was to commit a crime under the disguise of doing something completely plausible, in Peterson’s case it was going fishing, in Watts’ case it was going to work.
And in both cases, even telling the cops where he was, wasn’t going to reveal bodies very easily. That was also precisely the point, which is why it took as long as 48 hours to retrieve the bodies of the little girls even when the cops knew the location of the burial site.
In the Peterson case, they knew roughly where the burial site was but ultimately Scott Peterson and the currents of San Francisco Bay succeeded in fooling them. The cops never found Laci’s remains; nature – when she was ready – returned them to the world of the living. This happened with a little help from mother nature and man’s best friend. What was never meant to be found made its way back into the world thanks to a large storm and two families walking their dogs.
Just because the search span in the Watts case was much shorter doesn’t mean there wasn’t a lot of planning, calculation and strategy involved.
There was a plan.
The bodies being found ever was never part of the plan.
Okay. I have some questions. You mentioned in your book that Chris may have been watching his house when Nickole (however you spell it) was nosing around. After disposing of the bodies, where do you think he went? And roughly how long do you think it took him get his daughters in the oil tanks and dig a shallow grave for Sha’nann?
I cover that in TWO FACE III.
Or I believe you said monitoring the house. I’m not sure how that kind of technology would work, but I’m guessing if he could access the house remotely on his cell phone I guess he could be anywhere, couldn’t he.
This is an interesting case! And we get to see it unfold in real time, not looking back 22 years (JB Ramsey).
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It goes like this:
Cops: Nickole, you know where Chris works?
Nickole: Anadarko
Next, cops call Anadarko and ask about one Chris Watts at their employ.
Anadarko: Yeah, computer sez he was at CERVI 319, Monday early morning.
Cops: Can we go there and fly our drone?
Anadarko: Sure! It’s 40 miles away and kinda secluded, so our people will take you there.
Cops: Great. We’ll meet at your place and go to CERVI 319 together.
Police, CBI, FBI and Nickole Atkinson were onto Chris Watts from day one.
Interesting. So you think Chris Watts didn’t know Anadarko was tracking his truck?
I’m just wondering, if GPS solved the case in 2 minutes, why did it take them until Wednesday to find the children’s bodies? Also, how did the police know they were looking for bodies, and not a mom and kids walking around somewhere?
Maybe they went with him to work or he dropped them off on the way to work. Aaah well.
Watts changed the time of the “emotional conversation” about marriage separation from 5:00 AM to 4:00 AM or there would be literally no time for all the stuff that happened before his 5:38 AM departure.
Not that it matters. The whole world knows he was lying.
It does matter. Why did he say 5am to begin with? You’re imposing yourself and the end result on this case. We don’t figure anything out by going to the finish line and drawing a line from the finish to your starting line. Of course we know he was lying and of course murders were committed. I thought we’re here to figure out how and why that happened, not to wave the flag that he’s wrong, we’re right and he’s guilty with a dozen exclamation marks. That’s kindergarten true crime stuff.
5:00 AM is the first number that Watts pops out. This number is important to him. Important enough that he corrects it and changes to 4:00 AM.
5:00AM might be the time of day when something criminal was put in motion. He’s giving away a important clue that needs to be erased and substituted with a false number.
I doubt whether 5am is a time of any real significance, besides that by then he had originally planned to be finished with whatever he was doing.
Any ideas Piktor as to how and why the bed sheet got separated from the bodies and went unnoticed by Watts? Did he “throw” it in the field near the tank battery or did he lose it there? What was it used for? If it was used as a shroud to cover the bodies in the back of his truck, wouldn’t you want to bury it along with them? Or at the very least haul it back to his house?
It was early morning, probably dark, when he got to Cervi 319. Checks the time and realizes he’s behind schedule. With the idea of returning later and clean up loose ends, dumps the girls’ bodies. Takes longer than imagined. Quickly digs a shallow grave, carelessly dumps Shanann. In his hurry he forgets he left something lying there. He runs to his next job chore.
Problem is cops were onto him. They tell him to stay home. Wife and kids might return any time.
Tuesday they tie him up with media interviews. He’s told again to stay home.
Wednesday cops make him have more media declarations. He cannot clean up Cervi 319 loose ends, cops won’t let him! By Wednesday night he marches prisoner shackles.
Cops were not onto that morning yet ….however he did know other co-workers were on their way …. I thought he even spoke to one if them asking hus where abouts and how long till he got there.
The report says the drone spotted a bed sheet in the tank field, so yes, I didn’t picture it sticking out of the ground, or necessarily flying (depends on wind conditions) around but separated from the grave, on the topsoil.
The drone picked up on a soil disturbance, which is what I think then had them be able to pinpoint Cervi 319 as a burial ground for Sha’nann.
And I got the 10:00 time when Nickole arrived wrong – that is when Sha’nann was to have her doctor appointment. So Nickole A. didn’t get the cops over there until after 2:30.
Chris Watts had a lot more time at Cervi 319 then, unless of course he had other areas he needed to monitor as part of his job. But if no one is monitoring HIM, he could have spent more time better concealing Sha’nann don’t you think?
Perhaps cops took their scent dogs to CERVI 319 and quickly found Shanann but couldn’t spot the girls.
They then fly their drone and take photos from above. Watts now knows for sure he is extra crispy charred toast.
Cervi 319 was 40 miles from his house. I read that somewhere. So let’s give him until 6 a.m. roughly, maybe 6:30 to get there. Now he has to open the tank caps, go up those stairs and dispose of his daughters. He then has to bury Sha’nann. Nickole calls around 10 a.m. He’s now been “out there” for 3 1/2 hours. But ooops, where’s the sheet? Reminds me of O.J. He drops a bloody glove at Bundy, possibly takes a minute to search the ground for it, then he takes off, rushes home, climbs the back wall at Rockingham, knocks into Kato Kalin’s guest house and drops the other glove. That’s what happens when you’re in a hurry. You leave something behind.
Exactly.
So why did the neighbors and cops do a canvas search of the neighborbood throughout Monday – and Tuesday during the 8 minute interview on the porch – if the GPS info had been available all along? It may also be that Watts went to a number of oil sites that day, not just 1. So if they looked at the GPS data as their sole source of info it may have shown several locations. Just because the bodies were found at CERVI 319 doesn’t mean the GPS went from Saratoga Trail to CERVI 319 and nowhere else.
A canvas search keeps Watts tied in one spot, away from potential Anadarko crime scenes. Police want him fixed in one place. K-9s, canvass parties, TV reporters, newspaper reporters, the whole works. It was police’s strategy from day one:
– Keep the husband in one place
– where they can watch him 24/7.
– Fixed and going on and on with potential lies.
Police are obtaining a treasure trove of forensic information right outside the garage doors, consenting to speak his sorry story at length, in a public space.
Watts’ woozy mystery tale made no sense. Police, CBI, the FBI were taking notes. Media’s taking notes, the whole world is taking notes. Two days in a row the man babbles on and on.
A babbling mountain of lies, of inconsistencies, of sheer poppycock- all of it LEGALLY OBTAINED.
CW confirmed -cameras rolling, the world watching- he was a liar of the first order. Cops were happy with that. They had their man.
Something to ponder is Watts becoming “officially” suspect.
He was arrested Wednesday night and read his legal his rights. Defense will be excruciatingly fastidious about the timing of Watts official suspect status. These details do matter.
I think at that point or at some point Chris Watts worked with the police and told them what area he had been working or most probably what area he had gone to first, from the house, since they suspected he took the bodies with them when the neighbor’s dash cam saw him back up into the garage. I don’t know actually if the bed sheet was “spotted” by the lens of the drone or by the eyes of the investigators once they got to the site., “in a field near the tank battery.” Big field, and “near” is nebulous. Since they said the girls had been submerged in oil for four days, wasn’t it? then he had other opportunities to go back and make sure they actually would be submerged, not just lying in the funnel. I know we went over and over how those tanks might process or hold the oil but it’s still difficult to get an accurate visual.
I tend to agree that the “plan”, was to go about business as usual. Most people are aware that there are GPS tracking units in their work vehicles. Also, 40 miles away in Colorado, will most of the time mean 35-40 minutes to drive. We are talking 75mph speed limits on I-25, and Frederick is right on the I-25 corridor. You can expect travel speeds faster than that in the early morning hours. I also tend to lean towards the theory that Shan’ann’s flight delay put a large kink in the plan. Perhaps this is the reason he slipped within his lies? I’m just speculating, but that amount of storytelling would require some extent of rehearsal. Maybe, that was the original time he practiced? I would imagine it would be difficult to keep that amount of detail straight when it’s not true.
On the subject of multiple crime scenes at Cervi production sites.
There is such a thing as a wide-hatch production tank.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0qjm3Mls4TI
HLN expert said the tanks at Cervi 319 are specification “API 12F” production tanks.
#1 This is a 200 barrel API 12F production tank. You can see the narrow thief catch (a) to the right of a wide second hatch (b).
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DpUe6Q8UcAAphdb.jpg
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DpUe75AU8AAFH1o.jpg
Cervi 319 tanks don’t have wide hatches
– Watts might have dumped Shanann at Cervi 319.
– Then dumped the girls at another tank site.
– A site that does have tanks with wide hatches.
One might say that’s not what the affidavit says.
The affidavit is short on details. Too short.
Might be, for the sake of economy, police writes a minimal summary and presented it to authorities so the arrest could proceed.
Once Watts told police where he dumped the girls and they were both retrieved, all victims were accounted for.
All three burial spots are at CERVI 319. The affidavit is clear that the three bodies were all found in close proximity to each other.
Great thread with excellent theories and comments.
Below are a few ideas that might help.
1. We are all assuming that CW went directly from his house to CERVI 319. We do not know that to be true. We make this assumption by thinking even this Evil Genius isn’t dumb enough to drive around with his deceased family in the back seat. But the whole area of oilfield near Hudson and Roggen are vast tracts of nothing. It’s highly possible he made stops at tank batteries before/after CERVI 319. All “work as usual”.
It was widely “reported” that CW first told the police that he backed his truck into the garage, loaded his tools and went to work at an oilfield site near Hudson.
2. Even if the work truck had GPS (which is also an assumption but probably a good one) it did not lead police directly to CERVI 319. They would have been there much faster than around 4:00 pm on Wednesday.(Cadaver dog(s) had “lost their minds” at the Watts home on Tuesday. The police knew Tuesday they were dealing with death). It’s possible they had searched other sites for which CW was responsible on that day and only “arrived at CERVI 319” after searching other areas . The fact that the police are using a drone might indicate they have a vast area to search.
3. The police did not “hold” CW anywhere. He spent Tuesday night at the Thayer’s home and CW went to pick up his father at the airport on Wednesday. (I would question whether the “Evil Genius” would be dumb enough to even attempt a return to CERVI 319 with so many eyes upon him. But it’s possible.).
4. The sheet found at CERVI 319. Jeepers Nick – I too thought the sheet was flapping around by itself in the field. (Hangs head in shame). It was an assumption I made due to the way it was described in the affidavit. That’s a good example of me coming to a conclusion and not keeping an open mind about evidence. The idea that only a portion of the sheet was spotted makes a lot of sense.
5. Sunrise in Roggen, CO on August 13, 2018 was 6:07 a.m. The sun was up by the time CW was hiding bodies.
Thanks for your feedback Spock.
Yes and he spent Monday night at home too, free as a bird. If the GPS data was so rock-solid, so obvious, they would have found the remains that same afternoon or evening at the latest.
It’s amazing how misperceptions persist based on what we see in our mind’s eye. It’s the job of the true crime narrator to adjust these perceptions so they align as close as possible to the evidentiary facts, and then take the narrative into the unknown space beyond.
No more flapping sheets, I promise! I also had a few other misconceptions. I pictured Chris having to check into some office at Anadarko, as if he had to punch a time card or something. But the fields were his offices weren’t they? It was said he had an on-going romance with a co-worker. So again, I pictured them having the affair in an office-type setting. Others spotted them making out. I also thought he would have had to check his front door comings and goings from an office computer – not so. He had his cell phone. And lastly, I DID think he and other killers have to do a better job of preparing for their “after life” after the killings but didn’t think that they just need to go back as life as normal and maintain an air of normalcy to go undetected, not put on a big act afterwards. So thanks Mr. true crime narrator, and others here!
A map leading to three missing persons and to an arrest is laid down in the affidavit:
1- 7:00am, Tuesday 14, Frederick detectives “…initiated assistance from CBI and ultimately from the FBI”
The case was serious from day one
2- “a two day investigation revealed…”
Police weren’t buying his story
8-15-18, 4:15 PM:
Before Watts admitted to any wrongdoing
-police already knew about CERVI 319
-police had an aerial photo of the tank site
“Prior to Chris’ confession investigators arrived at CERVI 319 (with consent) to initiate a drone search of the area. At approximately 4:15 PM investigators spotted a bed sheet in the field near the tank battery…”
Watts was arrested that same day, “at 11:02 PM”
Cops were onto him because investigators spotted a bullshit story.
Tuesday 7:00 AM
Fact:
1- A two day investigation involving Frederick detectives, CBI and FBI
Wednesday 4:15 PM:
Facts:
1- Police already knew where to look.
2- They found out about a relationship with an Anadarko coworker Watts had denied
3- Anadarko Petroleum gave permission for the search at their oil sites
4- Three missing persons found.
5- A murderer confessed and taken to jail.
6- Mystery solved in two days.
All of this while Watts was selling his sorry tale.
Fact:
Frederick Police, CBI, FBI were on to him from day one.
Not sure what the point of this is. Nickole called the police and from then on they were “onto” him. The same was true in the Casey Anthony case. She was also arrested within 24 hours of her mother calling the police. Casey also told a series of silly and unbelievable lies. So what?
Am I mistaken or didn’t Watts’ boss Tony call the police first to tell them that he had detected some emails between Watts and Kessinger and then she called them after that?
Yes that is the impression I got also.
Well, police started a investigation on Tuesday and caught their man the next day. They found their three missing persons. They got a confession. TWO DAYS.
Nick writes:
“ If the GPS data was so rock-solid, so obvious, they would have found the remains that same afternoon or evening at the latest.”
They would not find, could not find anything on Monday because the husband described a spat with tears and wife announcing a playdate with the girls.
Police needed notice that wife and children had not returned yet. They needed the information after a full day had gone by so they could launch a Missing Persons investigation.
This has to do with a suspect’s rights. If he was declared a suspect and put in jail, what exactly was the charge? Having a spat with the wife and she walking out with the kids?
It comes down to procedure. If police make a dumb move, defense will argue “Rush To Judgement”, “lack of objectivity”, “declaring Watts a suspect on a hunch”, “zero proof of a crime he committed”
Following procedure, police had to wait until Tuesday to confirm it is a missing persons situation.
This is the point when detectives start their lawful investigation, lawful CBI, FBI assistance proceeds. It’s all about procedure in accordance with state law and a person’s rights.
Long story short: the state had to proceed in a lawful manner, with a lawful and thorough investigation that brought lawful facts and factual proof of a crime. Had they been able to gather all their facts and evidence on Tuesday, the arrest would have happened on Tuesday.
Police, in an affidavit under oath, state they were at CERVI 319 by Wednesday, 4:30 PM. They have to have legal documentation that explains how they got there.
Procedure plus documented evidence that takes two days to develop.
No rush to judgement here. No violation of Watts’ constitutional rights.
It’s a slow, deliberate and painstakingly documented buildup of a case, doting all the i’s, crossing all the t’s. Cases are won or lost when police bungle rules and legal procedures.
Specifically, police had legally acquired GPS information, legally acquired Anadarko company information, legal witness interviews, but not an official suspect. Watts was interviewed officially as a witness, same as all other interviews on the case.
Investigators are required to present a meticulous trail of documented facts indicating how they got to CERVI 319 and what they found there. Only then can they interview Watts, exhibit a drone photo, get a confession and finally realize an arrest on allegations of a triple murder.
You ask why wasn’t he arrested on Monday if police already had it figured out.
If investigators had had all their ducks in order on Monday, they would have.
The police were called midday Monday.
This was your earlier contention:
It goes like this:
Cops: Nickole, you know where Chris works?
Nickole: Anadarko
Next, cops call Anadarko and ask about one Chris Watts at their employ.
Anadarko: Yeah, computer sez he was at CERVI 319, Monday early morning.
Cops: Can we go there and fly our drone?
Anadarko: Sure! It’s 40 miles away and kinda secluded, so our people will take you there.
Cops: Great. We’ll meet at your place and go to CERVI 319 together.
Police, CBI, FBI and Nickole Atkinson were onto Chris Watts from day one.
>>>It sounds like you’re saying the case hinged on GPS data. I’m saying it had virtually nothing to do with it because Chris Watts volunteered where he worked. I explained why that fits into the same Scott Peterson spiel.
I also followed up this post with a post about what really set the wheels of the investigation in motion – the cadaver dogs. You seem to have missed something between the police calling Anadarko and actually realizing Shan’ann and the children were dead. How did they know they were dead, and how did they know to look for dead bodies hidden in tanks and in the ground, not living people who could be anywhere? Did the GPS co-ordinates tell them the family were dead?
Hahahaha!
You think the nonsensical story coming from Watts meant nothing to trained detectives, on Monday?
Tuesday:
Missing persons search protocol put in motion. Dogs confirmed they were dealing with corpses.
Wednesday:
As soon cops got to CERVI 319, I assume they brought Fido. Case solved.
Cops’ masterstroke: inquiring Watts where the girls were dumped.
Homerun!!! All legal, all according to procedure, everyone at Frederick Police, CBI, FBI high fiving.
So the whole point of this post was to show that HLN’s GPS Tracking Device Theory was barking up the wrong tree. That HLN didn’t seem to be thinking all their ideas through. You then backed the GPS story up and said how GPS was central to how they located the bodies. In terms of the search for Shan’ann’s body, I don’t think the truck’s GPS factored into the investigation at all.
I also don’t think cell phone data factored into the investigation at all, but don’t quote me on that.
The whole point in dumping bodies at his work site wasn’t to hide where he was that day, but to commit murder and bury bodies within his usual routine.
To reinforce why GPS was irrelevant I mentioned the dogs, that it was the dogs that actually made the major breakthrough in showing that things weren’t simply awry, three people were dead. The dogs and video surveillance boxed Watts into a corner. So he “confessed”, but said it was Shan’ann who killed the children. He then told the cops the location of all the bodies. Again – no need for GPS.
Now you’re on the track that the cadaver dogs solved everything. Why would they use a drone if they had dogs? They probably used a drone because of limited access to the site, perhaps because Anadarko isn’t necessarily the sole owner of a site, especially when its on farmland. Besides this, bodies dumped in oil wouldn’t be traceable by dogs or recoverable by them. When cadaver dogs searched Scott Peterson’s warehouse, which was packed floor to ceiling with chemicals, there was a weak alert in the toilet area. Investigators couldn’t tell what this alert meant, because Shan’ann had apparently used the rear toilet area. The cadaver dogs ability is neutralized when there are strong chemicals on site.
It’s not to say cadaver dogs weren’t used at CERVI 319. What is a fact is even when they knew where the children’s remains were, it took a long time to recover them. Specailized tools and technicians were needed.
The dogs were a crucial factor at the residence, not at the burial site.
I think the investigator ( I believe it was James) said he noticed that on Tuesday morning Watts hadn’t called in to ask if there had been any word on his family.