First, a disclaimer. There is naturally never a “good reason” to commit murder. In true crime it shouldn’t be necessary to say this, but in this case it is, especially given the hordes doing the rounds making accusations of “victim blaming”.
Chris Watts’ reason for committing murder is what we’re trying to get at. If we do come up with a cogent theory, that still doesn’t mean Watts had a “good reason” for killing anyone, murder is never a good reason. We’re trying to establish whether in Watts’ mind he thought he had a good reason, given his circumstances.
The timing of the murders are important. Without going into too much detail, what was floating in the air just prior to the murders was Watts deactivating/deleting his Facebook profile [August 9th], and the mutual decision to cancel the gender reveal party the following weekend, and instead reveal the gender on Monday [the Monday of the murders].
Now, if there is some truth to Nichol Kessinger’s claims, that she didn’t know Shan’ann was pregnant, or that she’d been led to believe the baby wasn’t Chris Watts’, then a “gender reveal” would clearly change that. Since Shan’ann was very public on Facebook about being super-excited about her pregnancy, and gushing about Chris, he had every reason to fear she’d let the cat out of the bag.
The above snippet from page 574 of the Discovery Documents suggests Kessinger was under the impression Shan’ann was pregnant as a result of an affair with someone else. It’s unclear for how long Kessinger was under this false impression, but we can see how this aspect as part of his overall narrative to her [that they were getting separated/divorced because of her affair, and because she fell pregnant] would make Kessinger feel a sense of certainty that the marriage was over.
Finding out that the baby was his, on the other hand, would swing everything around, and “ruin everything”.
Yet on the day prior to Watts deactivating his Facebook, the trio of girls decided amongst themselves not to reveal Niko’s gender on Facebook.
This had to be because Watts insisted. For Shan’ann to put every detail over her life on Facebook but not this one was a major concession. So it was part of the deal that she wouldn’t go public, if he would invest in their relationship. But it seems both sort of reneged on that promise. Shan’ann let her inner circle know about the sex of the child [and it was perhaps a matter of time, in Watts’ mind, before one of the promoters blabbed on Facebook], and Watts was never planning on sorting the rift in their relationship. The best he could do was buy time.
By Monday 13th, Watts figured time was up.